Eurozone, China, Germany, France: Weekly Export Risk Outlook

Eurozone: ECB goes lower for longer

The ECB has taken another timid step in what looks set to be a very gradual exit process from its ultra-expansive monetary policy. At its October meeting the ECB announced an extension of its QE program into 2018 albeit at a reduced pace. Asset purchases will be continued until at least the end of September but from January onwards the monthly quota will be halved to EUR30bn. Due to the careful communication on behalf of the ECB over the past few months – which had prepared the grounds for another tapering step – the market reaction proved muted. Overall the ECB’s announcement is quite dovish, which is likely to help keep a lid on EUR appreciation. For one it left the door open for a further QE program extension in size and/or length should economic or financial conditions deteriorate again. In addition forward guidance remained unchanged and with the reinvestment of principal payments to be continued for an extended period of time after the end of the QE program, the ECB will have a strong presence in bond markets for some time to come. Moreover the ECB’s lower-for-longer decision means that an interest rate hike from current record lows is unlikely to be implemented before 2019.

​​China: Q3 GDP and Congress

Real GDP growth edged down to +6.8% y/y in Q3 (from +6.9% in Q2) due to slower expansion in the secondary sector (+6%) while services remained strong (+8% y/y). Monthly data point to a solid rise in nominal retail sales in September (+10.3% y/y) but weaker investment growth (+7.5% y/y in January-September). Overall, economic growth continues to be supported by fiscal measures and solid expansion of private consumption and is on track to achieve the government target of “+6.5% or higher”. A gradual tightening of financing conditions helps to reduce financial risks (shadow banking activities, e.g.) but also translates into lower growth in investment and debt-intensive activities (construction, heavy machinery, e.g.). This more balanced economic performance provided a favorable background for the last Communist Party’s Congress and echoed president Xi’s speech on the need to bring China on healthier economic footing by containing financial risks. Assuming that financial authorities pursue a more prudent stance in 2018, economic growth is forecast to decelerate to +6.3%.

​​Germany: Boom goes on

Already upbeat sentiment in the German economy improved further in October. The Ifo business climate index notched up a steep 1.4 points and now stands at 116.7…

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Source: Euler HermesGAI