GlobalAutoTV
HR Issues in China
Joseph Pernaselli
Click to watch Joseph Pernaselli - HR Issues in China
Click to watch Joseph Pernaselli - HR Issues in China
china resources


Need an office in China? Office suites, meeting rooms, virtual offices, network access



free downloads
CHINA: "Legal Alert: Judgements and Awards - Taiwan and Mainland China"

CHINA: "Legal Alert: Judgements and Awards - Taiwan and Mainland China". 4-page Alert on "Reciprocal recognition and enforcement of civil court judgments and arbitral awards between Taiwan and Mainland China" by Baker & McKenzie.

proceed to download
eJournals



back to index backCHINAtalk April,  2017


Autos/Trucks: China Auto Demand Tracking Above Q1 Estimates (download report)

China auto sales (wholesale shipments) are tracking up 9% quarter-to-date, above our Q1 estimate for an 11% decline. Note, CPCA (China Passenger Car Association) is showing retail sales down 3% quarter-to-date, which is below the wholesale number, but still above expectations heading into the quarter. We believe this variance is caused by higher inventory levels (especially in smaller cars given the tax change). While wholesale shipments could slow to bring inventory levels down, we believe current demand supports upside to our full-year estimate near flat.

- China auto sales are tracking up 9% quarter-to-date (February +22% yoy), above our Q1 estimate for an 11% decline. Given the shift of the Chinese New Year into January (versus February last year), we analyze both months together for an accurate yoy comparison. Note, "sales" represents wholesale sales to the dealer and correlates with CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) data that shows demand up 6-7% YTD.

- CPCA (China Passenger Car Association) estimates retail sales are down 3% quarter-to-date, which is below the wholesale figure, but still well above our sales expectation for an 11% decline in Q1. These figures have diverged YTD given higher inventory levels at the dealer level. China automotive dealer inventory index rose 510bps sequentially to 66.6%, versus recent February average of 56%. We believe higher inventory levels are concentrated at smaller car segments with mini cars and sub-compact cars down 35% and 13% YTD, respectively. Year-to-date, demand has been led by luxury cars (+25% yoy) and SUVs (19%).

- YTD China sales by OEM:

----- OEMs gaining share: Geely (+98%), Renault-Nissan (+48%), Mazda (+36%), FAW (+33%).

----- OEMs losing share: PSA (-49%), Brilliance (-46%), Suzuki (-41%), Ford (-23%). Note, we view Ford's negative China comments as company-specific rather than an industry issue.

----- Premium brands (deliveries): Mercedes (+35%), BMW (+15%), Audi (-24%)

- China auto production is tracking up 12% yoy in the quarter, above our estimate for an 11% decline. While production likely slows given higher inventory levels, we believe there is likely upside to our full-year estimate roughly flat.

- Commercial vehicle sales more than doubled (+106%) in February. Demand has been supported by very strong heavy truck volumes (+147% yoy) given enforcement of weight overloading rule. This drove strong growth in the back half of 2016 (up roughly 35%) and likely continues into the first half of 2017.

- Commercial vehicle production is tracking +53% yoy versus our Q1 estimate +44%. We expect full-year build to be roughly flat roughly consistent with WABCO (flat at the midpoint) and Volvo (down 6%).

To download 9-page report, please click here.

Source: BAIRD - GAI



previous page

go top
search our site


Loading

CHINAtalk

Other articles from the same issue (April,  2017).

China could be world's leading electric vehicle producer: Expert
play read on

Autos/Trucks: China Auto Demand Tracking Above Q1 Estimates (download report)
play read on

Auto Makers Long for Easier China
play read on

Combustion: The Beginning of the End For American Automakers in China
play read on

Gao Feng Advisory Says U.S. Carmakers Doing Well in China
play read on

Report: US Automakers Seek End To Chinese Tariff
play read on

China Outbound Investment Drives a New Chapter of Globalization
play read on

These Chinese-backed Start-ups are Gearing Up to Challenge Tesla
play read on

Importance of Business Intelligence on Decision-Makers When Doing Business in China
play read on

Global Concerns Over China's 'Manufacturing 2025' Initiative Highlighted In New EU Report
play read on

Sourcing top-notch talents for China Inc
play read on

Competing with the Chinese Factory of 2017
play read on

Opinion: China's economic problems will come to a head in 2017
play read on

Beware The Dragon: Expert Views On Risks And Opportunities In China
play read on

New Labor Laws Seek to Pressure Chinese Employers
play read on

The Road to Globalization for Chinese Multinationals
play read on

IP theft: Declining, or just more stealthy?
play read on

Chinese Cities of Opportunity 2017 - report
play read on

Belt and Road countries are China's dynamic trade partners
play read on

China IPO markets take global lead in Q1, Hong Kong sees sector and geographical diversification, KPMG analysis finds
play read on

China Employment Offer Letters Because They Matter
play read on

China Stonewalls U. S. Steel's Cybertheft Lawsuit
play read on

China's latest five-year plan could be its last
play read on

Trends and implications in the internationalisation of the Renminbi
play read on

China issues compliance requirements on related-party transactions
play read on

China's New Industrial War
play read on

China's IC Industry to Embark on a Major Recruitment Drive This Year
play read on

Economic Watch: China's manufacturers sharpen competitive edge
play read on

China's spending on robotics to hit $59.4b in 2020: IDC
play read on

How Technology Can Help China With The New Customs Self-Tax Methodology
play read on


Our Free eJournals
GlobalAutoExperts

To visit GlobalAutoExperts Directory, click here.


©2008 GlobalAutoIndustry.com | HCI Group, Ltd.
101 West Big Beaver Road, Suite 1400 | Troy, MI 48084 USA
USA Tel: +1.248.687.1060 | USA Fax: +1.248.927.0347
Fax UK: +44.(0)845.127.4765 | Fax Europe: +31.20.524.1659 | Fax Asia: +852.3015.8120