GlobalAutoTV
Click to watch Wim van Acker -
Click to watch Wim van Acker -
latin resources

Need an office in Mexico or Brazil? Office suites, meeting rooms, virtual offices, network access



free downloads
LATIN AMERICA: "The Brazilian automotive industry at crossroads" report

LATIN AMERICA: "The Brazilian automotive industry at crossroads" report. 11-slide presentation by Roland Berger.

proceed to download
eJournals


back to index backLATINtalk April,  2017


Autos/Trucks: Increasing Signs that Brazil Market Is Bottoming (report)

Brazil auto registrations declined 7% yoy in February and have declined 5% quarter-to-date. On the other hand, auto production is up 29% QTD (above our +20% estimate) as dealers begin restocking inventory levels. Truck production is tracking up 1% yoy quarter-to-date, below our estimate for 10% growth. Similar to autos, truck dealers have been increasing inventory levels. In conjunction with improving macro indicators (interest rates, inflation, GDP), we believe rising inventory levels provides a bullish signal that Brazil vehicle demand could bottom in 2017.

Brazil auto registrations declined 7% yoy in February. Registrations are down 5% quarter-to-date, below our estimate for +20% growth. Although registrations have lagged, production has inflected in recent months (+29% YTD) and inventory levels are moving higher. These trends indicate OEMs are becoming more confident that demand is turning. Registrations typically lag retail sales by 2-3 months, so we need to see registrations move higher in the coming months to confirm the bottom has been put in place. Positively, the economy appears to be slowly improving with inflation/interest rates decreasing and GDP declines lessening.

Auto production increased 41% yoy in February. Production expanded 29% quarter-to-date, above our estimates for 20% growth. Importantly, the Brazil market appears to be headed for double-digit growth for the second consecutive quarter after falling double-digits for most of the past 3 years. LTM production is near 2.1 million units, roughly 40% below the 2012-2013 peak.

QTD sales by OEM:
- OEMs gaining share: Nissan (+28% yoy), GM (+4%), Ford (+3%).
- OEMs losing share: VW/Audi (-14%), PSA (-10%), Honda (-9%).

Brazil truck registrations have declined 35% quarter-to-date, consistent with the performance seen for the full-year 2016. Demand remains weak, reflecting the current GDP growth declines. Positively, industrial production showed yoy growth in January for the first time since the beginning of 2014.

QTD sales by OEM:
- OEMs gaining share: Scania (+1% yoy), Ford (-24%), Iveco (-26%).
- OEMs losing share: Agrale (-48%), VW (-46%), Daimler (-38%).

Truck production is up 1% yoy quarter-to-date, below our estimate for 10% growth. Similar to the auto side, truck build has inflected ahead of registrations as inventory levels improve. Our proxy for inventory (production minus sales minus net exports) has now improved in consecutive months for the first time since early 2014. For the full-year, we estimate Brazil production rises 10%, consistent with WABCO's production estimate for 5-15% growth.

To download 8-page report, please click here.

Source: BAIRD - GAI



previous page

go top
search our site


Loading

LATINtalk

Other articles from the same issue (April,  2017).

USA New Government: Implications for the Mexican Automotive Industry
play read on

NAFTA unlikely to hurt Mexico car production, says Renault-Nissan CEO
play read on

WardsAuto: More Sales Records Fall in Mexico in March
play read on

Autos/Trucks: Increasing Signs that Brazil Market Is Bottoming (report)
play read on

Chinese automaker eyes plants in two Mexico states hit by Trump
play read on

UK automotive: Mexico waving
play read on

Brazil to waive 30 percent IPI tax on Colombian autos: source
play read on

Car Licensing in Brazil Grows by 38.86 Percent in March
play read on

Beyond Trump: the hidden threat robots pose to the Mexican economy
play read on

Brazil and Other Bright Spots in Latin America
play read on

Mexico: Let's get NAFTA done now
play read on

US Wants Mexico, Canada to Form Powerhouse to Keep Supply Regional
play read on

Mexico prepared to 'step away' from NAFTA if negotiations don't benefit the country
play read on

GDP in Brazil Registers Lowest Decline in 22 Months
play read on

Cheap "Made in China" goods are now even cheaper to manufacture in Brazil
play read on

UK 1bn export credit for British companies planning to trade with Argentina
play read on

Argentina: Government Extends Tax Amnesty to Cover Customs Debts
play read on

Massive stoppage in metropolitan Buenos Aires but with limited response in the rest of the country
play read on

Doing Business in Argentina 2017 - Guide
play read on

Brazil Has 6th Highest Cargo Transport Risk Rate in World
play read on

S&P raised Argentina's credit rating to "B", on the "verge of exiting recession"
play read on

Walmart to pay fine for making employees work during Brazil's World Cup game
play read on

Brazil denies plans to raise taxes on forex transactions to help meet fiscal target
play read on

One Million New Seats on International Direct Flights to Mexico in 2017
play read on

Study Reveals Brazilian Companies Excel Despite Crises
play read on

Taxation and Reinsurance in Brazil: Regulatory Update
play read on

Chinese investors move in, take large slice of Latin American pie
play read on

Financial Reporting Alert 17-2 - Developments related to determining whether Argentina's economy should be considered highly inflationary
play read on

LatAm countries yearn for expansion of Asia-Pacific free-trade zone
play read on

New transfer pricing requirements in Latin America under BEPS
play read on


Our Free eJournals
GlobalAutoExperts

To visit GlobalAutoExperts Directory, click here.


©2008 GlobalAutoIndustry.com | HCI Group, Ltd.
101 West Big Beaver Road, Suite 1400 | Troy, MI 48084 USA
USA Tel: +1.248.687.1060 | USA Fax: +1.248.927.0347
Fax UK: +44.(0)845.127.4765 | Fax Europe: +31.20.524.1659 | Fax Asia: +852.3015.8120